Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f59…4410 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate88%36W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$40
14 days−$48
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -68.9% -71.9% 25% 0% -81.3%
≤30d 41 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 39% -19.2%
≤90d 41 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 39% -19.2%
all 41 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 39% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 39% -19.2%
10% -19.0% 7% -27.0%
15% -26.8% 2% -34.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses36 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage14d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$30 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 05 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $33 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $32 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $33 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $23 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $17 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $17 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $16 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $13 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records