Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f5c…e228 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 136L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$22
politics 30% −$16
sports 13% −$15
tech 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -2.4% -11.7% 5% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage138d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $221 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $282 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $275 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $285 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $792 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $215 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $203 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $273 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $273 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $483 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $444 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $249 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $427 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $202 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $468 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $35 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $252 28d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $252 30d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 30d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 31d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $282 31d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $282 31d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $234 32d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $234 33d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $272 33d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $272 34d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $275 34d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $275 35d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $226 35d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $226 35d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $228 36d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $228 36d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 36d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 37d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $230 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 443 history records