Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f5e…f840 other 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,201 (-1%) realized −$3,202 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%34W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,341per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$40
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$120
other 37% −$38
sports 13% −$3,063
culture 2% −$6
economics 2% −$3
world 1% −$13
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -6.0% -15.0% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 99 -14.5% -22.6% 3% 1% -11.4%
all 160 -4.7% -13.7% 21% 7% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 7% -10.9%
10% -22.0% 7% -19.4%
15% -29.5% 5% -27.2%
20% -36.4% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,685) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$29 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$3,202
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses34 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,341
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $342 $343 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $358 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,913 −$3 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $275 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $264 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,629 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $989 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,655 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,269 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,043 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5,331 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,844 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,016 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,709 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,558 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,050 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,488 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,012 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $4,074 −$6 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $695 +$1 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,566 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,421 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,664 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,388 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $966 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $2,596 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $86 +$66 +76%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $4,368 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $4,785 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 19 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,628 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,400 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $5,962 −$8 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,245 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $358 24m
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $358 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $617 21h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $618 23h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $274 26h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $275 27h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $264 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $264 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,167 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,168 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $949 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $950 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $988 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $989 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,103 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,104 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,011 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,012 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $661 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $662 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,196 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,197 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,070 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,072 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $342 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,482 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,484 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,397 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.29 · official $343.29 (match) · 492 history records