Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f5f…c91d sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate65%44W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% +$33
other 32% −$18
sports 29% −$17
tech 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% −$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +8.2% -2.1% 63% 58% -11.2%
≤30d 60 +8.2% -2.1% 63% 58% -11.2%
≤90d 60 +8.2% -2.1% 63% 58% -11.2%
all 68 +7.6% -2.6% 65% 51% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 51% -11.2%
10% -12.0% 46% -19.7%
15% -20.5% 38% -27.4%
20% -28.3% 29% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses44 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)68 / 87
History coverage234d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-19%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 67¢ 97¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 69¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$13 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +250%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$12 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$23 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$22 +78%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +172%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$25 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +108%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$5 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $10 9h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $33 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 13h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.96 · official $174.92 (match) · 162 history records