Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f60…50b1 crypto 932 markets active 4d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$174 (+2%) realized +$174 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate70%649W / 283L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$44
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$72
weather 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.6% -19.1% 62% 54% -50.8%
≤30d 153 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 48% -28.9%
≤90d 932 -1.5% -10.9% 70% 53% -9.1%
all 932 -1.5% -10.9% 70% 53% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 53% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 38% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 28% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 17% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses649 / 283
Open positions0
Markets (closed)932 / 932
History coverage63d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 932 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 0¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2204 history records