Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f62…76f6 sports 837 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (405 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$7,498 (+4%) realized +$7,503 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%438W / 217L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day404.8pace
Fees−$1,347est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$25,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$13,114
other 13% −$236
crypto 1% −$748
world 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (405 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 655 +36.8% +23.8% 67% 50% -3.1%
≤30d 655 +36.8% +23.8% 67% 50% -3.1%
≤90d 655 +36.8% +23.8% 67% 50% -3.1%
all 655 +36.8% +23.8% 67% 50% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover404.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.8% 50% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here +12.0% 37% -12.3%
15% +1.1% 27% -20.8%
20% -8.8% 21% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +70% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$143 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$25,200
Realized+$7,503
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses438 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,347
Open positions112
Markets (closed)655 / 837
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$199
Trades / day404.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 112 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $750 $744 −$6 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Under 83¢ 81¢ $749 $736 −$14 (-2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 87¢ 85¢ $598 $585 −$14 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 40¢ 44¢ $500 $544 +$44 (+9%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Tunisia 74¢ 76¢ $500 $516 +$17 (+3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 50¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 52¢ 52¢ $519 $515 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 61¢ 62¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $499 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 37¢ 36¢ $513 $507 −$7 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $510 $505 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 61¢ 57¢ $533 $504 −$28 (-5%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 97¢ $499 $503 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 73¢ 74¢ $499 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $500 $502 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 94¢ $499 $502 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 35¢ 34¢ $508 $501 −$7 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $499 $497 −$2 (-0%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Under 93¢ 92¢ $499 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 95¢ $494 $494 +$1 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 26¢ 24¢ $519 $490 −$29 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $249 +$3 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $510 −$7 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $249 −$14 -6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $177 −$78 -44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 +$16 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $255 −$255 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $293 −$293 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,011 −$511 -51%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $602 −$602 -100%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $250 +$37 +15%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $500 +$149 +30%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $497 +$71 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $282 +$46 +16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $509 +$400 +79%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $249 +$48 +19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $249 +$8 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $148 +$6 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $83 −$83 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $124 −$124 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $126 −$126 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $505 −$505 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $235 −$235 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $500 −$487 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $52 +$24 +45%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $131 +$197 +150%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $183 +$68 +37%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $125 +$115 +92%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $251 +$463 +185%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $128 +$21 +17%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $250 +$18 +7%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $131 +$92 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,007 +$21 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $253 +$125 +49%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $249 +$16 +6%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $34 0m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $500 1m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 12¢ $1 1m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $87 8m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $67 9m
Avaí FC leading at halftime? BUY No 71¢ $5 13m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $252 18m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $4 25m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $249 30m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $95 34m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 19¢ $5 36m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 37m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $14 39m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $16 45m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 19¢ $0 45m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $4 57m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 34¢ $8 58m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 76¢ $14 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 76¢ $20 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 25¢ $20 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 26¢ $511 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 17¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 50¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $48 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 12¢ $39 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,199.95 · official $25,682.94 · 3500 history records