Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f63…90dd sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$710 (-9%) realized −$708 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%41W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$451
14 days−$696
30 days−$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$668
other 1% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -32.6% -39.0% 36% 36% -35.8%
≤30d 26 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 42% -32.6%
≤90d 74 -6.0% -14.9% 54% 54% -18.1%
all 77 -7.0% -15.9% 53% 53% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 53% -17.3%
10% -23.9% 45% -25.2%
15% -31.3% 32% -32.5%
20% -38.0% 19% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$62 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$708
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses41 / 36
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage188d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 68¢ $271 $269 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $474 −$201 -42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $99 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $83 −$82 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $159 −$77 -48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $106 +$53 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $261 −$54 -21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $162 +$44 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $116 +$46 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $122 −$121 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$42 +41%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $110 +$71 +64%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $20 +$21 +103%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $91 −$70 -78%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $44 +$47 +107%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $230 −$10 -4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $58 −$27 -46%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $24 +$34 +137%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $152 −$110 -73%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $87 +$69 +79%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 +$36 +70%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $238 −$186 -78%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $384 +$93 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $114 +$71 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $225 +$89 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $131 −$26 -20%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 15 $102 −$78 -76%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 12 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $19 −$6 -31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $37 −$20 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $61 −$2 -3%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) May 12 $44 −$22 -50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $22 +$10 +43%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $22 +$6 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $22 −$3 -15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner May 11 $15 −$11 -73%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5) May 11 $65 −$49 -76%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) May 11 $52 +$13 +24%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 11 $37 +$14 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $22 +$15 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $273 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $192 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $374 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $100 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 75¢ $100 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $100 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $99 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $83 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $82 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $159 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $159 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $106 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 32¢ $55 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 24¢ $55 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $206 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $206 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 78¢ $162 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $162 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $116 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $122 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $143 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $101 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $181 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $110 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.82 · official $268.82 (match) · 156 history records