Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f64…d313 crypto 598 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$250 (+3%) realized −$549 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%299W / 383L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day559.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days−$549
14 days−$549
30 days−$549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$204
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 682 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 35% -16.1%
≤30d 682 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 35% -16.1%
≤90d 682 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 35% -16.1%
all 682 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 35% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover559.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 35% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 26% -24.2%
15% -37.6% 17% -31.5%
20% -43.7% 10% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$549
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses299 / 383
Open positions4
Markets (closed)682 / 598
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day559.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 68¢ 38¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 90¢ 84¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 55¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 75¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 40¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.93 · official $10.93 (match) · 3500 history records