Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f66…3993 other 595 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$351 (-0%) realized −$348 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate82%485W / 103L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$186
14 days−$449
30 days−$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$389
politics 6% +$14
sports 5% −$140
tech 5% +$32
crypto 4% +$4
weather 3% +$6
culture 2% +$3
world 0% −$9
economics 0% −$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +4.0% -5.9% 51% 49% -4.0%
≤30d 127 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 39% -17.2%
≤90d 244 -1.8% -11.2% 73% 22% -10.5%
all 588 -0.5% -10.0% 82% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 9% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 8% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 7% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$22 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$348
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses485 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions7
Markets (closed)588 / 595
History coverage188d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 58¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 74¢ $27 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $50 +$32 +64%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 −$36 -70%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $23 −$5 -22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $82 −$34 -41%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 +$38 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $50 +$69 +138%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $49 +$23 +47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $50 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $50 +$23 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $50 +$56 +112%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $24 +$10 +42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $50 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $66 −$30 -45%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 +$15 +30%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting Jun 19 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $58 −$3 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$53 +108%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $37 +$14 +38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $62 −$44 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $48 +$36 +75%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $50 +$39 +78%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $52 +$40 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $49 +$45 +92%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$32 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 +$15 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$41 +83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 +$48 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$12 -61%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $33 −$30 -92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 +$64 +123%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $34 +$37 +110%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$25 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$32 +72%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$78 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 61¢ $16 38m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 49m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 49m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $17 51m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $11 51m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $24 54m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 58¢ $11 54m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $11 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 18¢ $16 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $12 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $11 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $11 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $11 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 3h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 54¢ $18 3h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $23 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $31 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $49 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $51 16h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 41¢ $50 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.63 · official $164.63 (match) · 1684 history records