Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f66…4c8d weather 449 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50,805 (+53%) realized +$51,433 · open −$628
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%117W / 602L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day120.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$21,851
other 2% −$427
culture 1% −$1,008
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 -68.5% -71.5% 7% 6% -52.6%
≤30d 716 -35.8% -41.9% 16% 13% -10.8%
≤90d 716 -35.8% -41.9% 16% 13% -10.8%
all 716 -35.8% -41.9% 16% 13% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.9% 13% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -47.5% 12% -19.3%
15% -52.6% 11% -27.1%
20% -57.2% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$78 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2,509
Realized+$51,433
Unrealized−$628
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses117 / 602
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)719 / 449
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day120.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 22? No 97¢ 97¢ $704 $703 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 22? No 90¢ 84¢ $616 $576 −$40 (-7%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 92¢ $122 $253 +$131 (+108%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $200 $224 +$23 (+12%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $180 $173 −$7 (-4%)
Will Seoul have between 150-160mm of precipitation in June? Yes 67¢ 10¢ $677 $102 −$575 (-85%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $70 $81 +$11 (+16%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $81 $72 −$10 (-12%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 78¢ $43 $69 +$26 (+59%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $59 $68 +$9 (+15%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $62 $37 −$25 (-40%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $41 $13 −$28 (-68%)
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Big Tobacco buy Juice Head nicotine pouches? No 25¢ 58¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+134%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 22? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+145%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $167 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 7? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 20? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 13? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31? Jun 22 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 1? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Jun 22 $36 +$23 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Jun 22 $2 −$11 -521%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 3? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8? Jun 22 $254 −$254 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 3? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30? Jun 22 $53 −$58 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on Ja Jun 22 $9 +$85 +969%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 14? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Apr Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 8? Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 22 $704 −$704 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29? Jun 22 $78 −$76 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 16? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27 Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30? Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 22 $82 −$82 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 3? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 14? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +519%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 26? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on April 11? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Apri Jun 22 $5 −$92 -1738%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 11? Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Fe Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 16? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 1? Jun 22 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on April 2? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on January 12? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $354 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $705 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $209 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 97¢ $34 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 89¢ $233 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $474 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $101 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $52 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 49¢ $171 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 9¢ $90 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $80 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 10¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,508.68 · official $2,488.41 (match) · 3500 history records