Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f67…2fd3 crypto 218 markets active 3d ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,514 (-41%) realized −$1,443 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%64W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$112
14 days−$251
30 days−$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$575
crypto 42% −$941
tech 1% −$45
politics 1% +$24
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +32.3% +19.7% 57% 57% +35.5%
≤30d 46 -37.9% -43.8% 22% 22% -64.7%
≤90d 47 -39.2% -45.0% 21% 21% -64.8%
all 214 -27.1% -34.0% 30% 24% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 24% -47.0%
10% -40.4% 21% -52.0%
15% -46.1% 20% -56.7%
20% -51.4% 17% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,443
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses64 / 150
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)214 / 218
History coverage318d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$37 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $34 $1 −$33 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $42 +$35 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $23 +$51 +220%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$29 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $69 +$62 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $26 +$25 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $121 −$116 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $6 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $17 −$8 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$37 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $36 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $146 −$139 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $41 −$39 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $33 −$32 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 22 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 22 $13 +$19 +148%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 22 $4 +$4 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $5 +$11 +208%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $8 +$12 +146%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 19 $0 +$2 +455%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luciano Darderi vs Mattia Bellucci Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $77 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $49 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $50 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $63 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $42 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 6d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $69 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.10 · official $4.10 (match) · 1378 history records