Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f6a…fc83 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$230 (-12%) realized −$193 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$571
crypto 44% −$207
sports 11% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-77.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -74.7% -77.1% 17% 17% -77.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.1% 17% -77.8%
10% -79.3% 17% -79.9%
15% -81.3% 17% -81.8%
20% -83.1% 17% -83.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$209 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage110d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $282 $245 −$37 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $203 −$198 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $542 −$534 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 08 $305 −$300 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 08 $201 +$105 +52%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 08 $179 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $112 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $165 22m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $113 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $507 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 8¢ $138 8h
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $305 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $306 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $201 109d
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 109d
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $208 109d
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $173 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.96 · official $244.96 (match) · 24 history records