Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f6b…3ff9 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$4
other 28% −$2
politics 12% $0
tech 11% +$1
crypto 4% +$1
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.0% -11.3% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -8.6%
all 46 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 7% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 7% -7.4%
10% +5.7% 4% -16.3%
15% -4.5% 4% -24.4%
20% -13.8% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage477d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $64 +$4 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $59 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $29 +$2 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 -8%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 03 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 30 $33 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 24 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $25 +$2 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $2 $0 +5%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 19 $2 +$2 +100%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on March 14? Mar 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will more than 300k jobs be added in February? Mar 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April? Mar 07 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 04 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump say "DEI" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 2 Mar 04 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 28? Mar 04 $1 +$16 +1487%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $6 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $30 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $30 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $31 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.28 · official $35.28 (match) · 190 history records