Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f6e…baee crypto 41 markets active 1d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+6%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$4
other 31% $0
sports 16% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 43% -9.6%
≤30d 41 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 49% -5.3%
≤90d 41 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 49% -5.3%
all 41 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 49% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 49% -5.3%
10% -18.7% 44% -14.3%
15% -26.6% 37% -22.6%
20% -33.8% 27% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +166%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +30%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $4 +$4 +99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $11 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $11 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 67¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records