Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1f71…b2e4 sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$25,552 (+9%) realized +$26,095 · open −$543
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%117W / 38L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,798per market
Trades / day80.8pace
Fees−$2,479est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,047
7 days+$9,231
14 days+$13,538
30 days+$23,686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$17,765
other 31% +$5,383
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 25% -3.1%
≤30d 155 +17.2% +6.1% 75% 34% -2.0%
≤90d 155 +17.2% +6.1% 75% 34% -2.0%
all 155 +17.2% +6.1% 75% 34% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 34% -2.0%
10% -4.1% 15% -11.4%
15% ← realistic here -13.3% 12% -19.9%
20% -21.8% 6% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$2,404) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$227 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$595
Realized+$26,095
Unrealized−$543
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses117 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$2,479
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,798
Trades / day80.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $1,139 $595 −$543 (-48%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,004 +$530 +9%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,308 +$137 +10%
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail Jun 17 $2,404 +$109 +4%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $193 +$6 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9,774 +$1,333 +14%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $10,996 +$324 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $149 $0 +0%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 17 $3,495 +$46 +1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,762 +$203 +12%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,362 −$293 -12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$40 +20%
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 16 $167 +$30 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,034 +$925 +18%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $932 +$5 +0%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6,715 +$174 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $354 −$346 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,509 +$61 +2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,519 +$41 +3%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1,003 −$85 -8%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $1,040 +$223 +22%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1,861 −$134 -7%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $1,005 −$103 -10%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nikita Bilozertsev vs Alexander Bernard Jun 16 $164 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,308 −$227 -17%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 −$6 -44%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,056 −$71 -7%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $79 +$12 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$1 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,564 +$126 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,519 −$88 -6%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,489 +$71 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $273 +$56 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $351 −$345 -98%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $2,968 +$271 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,503 −$132 -9%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,332 +$317 +24%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $593 −$84 -14%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1,186 +$70 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $2,668 +$104 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $18,584 +$1,375 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $514 +$238 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $767 +$283 +37%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $600 +$6 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$98 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,449 +$106 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $250 +$28 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $433 +$352 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 59¢ $608 42m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $1,495 42m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,993 42m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $416 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $703 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $534 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $375 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,019 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $2,405 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,993 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,445 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,306 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $136 3h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $63 3h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $193 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $100 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $99 3h
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail BUY Despina Papamichail 93¢ $982 3h
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail BUY Despina Papamichail 96¢ $395 3h
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail BUY Despina Papamichail 98¢ $1,002 3h
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail BUY Despina Papamichail 87¢ $26 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $940 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,824 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $200 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $200 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.43 · official $595.42 (match) · 2033 history records