Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f71…8032 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$147 (-2%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$94
other 10% +$1
crypto 3% +$2
world 2% +$1
sports 2% −$58
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 30 -13.1% -21.4% 13% 0% -14.0%
all 47 -8.8% -17.5% 17% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -11.2%
10% -25.4% 0% -19.7%
15% -32.6% 0% -27.4%
20% -39.2% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage552d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $47 +$3 +6%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $23 $0 +2%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in February? Mar 05 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 15 $139 +$1 +1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $549 −$13 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $526 −$13 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $571 −$15 -3%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $419 −$12 -3%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $280 −$4 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $472 −$6 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 26 $11 $0 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Oct 26 $165 −$4 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $18 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $3,539 −$27 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $10 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 29d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 29d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 35d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 35d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 36d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.27 · official $25.28 (match) · 246 history records