Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f75…dbdd other 46 markets active 1d ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$6
world 32% −$16
politics 10% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.4% -24.4% 33% 0% -17.2%
≤30d 6 -16.4% -24.4% 33% 0% -17.2%
≤90d 6 -16.4% -24.4% 33% 0% -17.2%
all 46 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -10.2%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.8%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage462d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $46 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 24 $5 +$3 +64%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 08 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 07 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 06 $17 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $21 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 04 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $16 +$4 +22%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? Mar 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 29h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $1 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $8 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $8 44h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $43 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $48 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $46 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $8 354d
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 357d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 359d
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $14 385d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? SELL No 100¢ $15 385d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $7 387d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 84¢ $8 387d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 52¢ $5 390d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? BUY No 98¢ $15 393d
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? SELL No 97¢ $15 393d
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $17 393d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 393d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 394d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $18 395d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $18 397d
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 98¢ $18 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records