Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f76…8af2 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%36W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$23
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$1
crypto 20% −$55
sports 13% −$22
world 2% +$43
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +1.2% -8.4% 34% 29% -4.4%
≤30d 110 -3.9% -13.1% 33% 29% -12.9%
≤90d 110 -3.9% -13.1% 33% 29% -12.9%
all 110 -3.9% -13.1% 33% 29% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 29% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 29% -21.2%
15% -29.0% 28% -28.8%
20% -35.9% 26% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses36 / 74
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3 $0 -7%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $102 −$59 -58%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 +$22 +216%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $8 +$10 +123%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $34 +$31 +90%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 $0 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 +$45 +873%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 +$49 +473%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 −$8 -78%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$3 -52%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $24 +$16 +64%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 +$3 +125%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $3 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +115%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +85%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $4 +$7 +162%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $7 +$12 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 46m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 60¢ $42 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $101 3h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $32 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 5h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 5h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 31¢ $10 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 6h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records