Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f79…71eb weather 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-18%) realized −$31 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate74%81W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$41
other 34% −$11
weather 20% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 67 -1.1% -10.5% 99% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 67 -1.1% -10.5% 99% 0% -10.5%
all 110 -17.2% -25.1% 74% 13% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 13% -31.7%
10% -32.3% 11% -38.2%
15% -38.8% 9% -44.2%
20% -44.8% 9% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses81 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $22 1h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $22 1h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $23 1h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $22 1h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $23 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.81 · official $10.81 (match) · 198 history records