Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f79…ff61 sports 84 markets active 6d ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$815 (-13%) realized −$815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$747
30 days−$770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$736
politics 2% −$14
other 1% +$5
culture 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% −$11
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +312.5% +273.2% 50% 50% -99.3%
≤30d 32 -9.2% -17.8% 31% 25% -21.0%
≤90d 46 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 26% -18.9%
all 84 -18.3% -26.1% 31% 25% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 25% -19.2%
10% -33.2% 17% -26.9%
15% -39.6% 13% -34.0%
20% -45.6% 10% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$23 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 58
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage557d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $472 −$43 -9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $85 −$5 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $302 −$93 -31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $443 −$182 -41%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $288 +$174 +60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $791 +$89 +11%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $235 −$92 -39%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $55 +$1 +3%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $63 −$3 -4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $30 +$2 +8%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $40 −$6 -14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $22 −$1 -3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $70 −$68 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $471 −$178 -38%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $185 −$57 -31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $162 −$56 -34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $14 −$4 -26%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $280 −$67 -24%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $331 −$48 -14%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $166 −$112 -68%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $214 −$5 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $87 −$69 -79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $76 +$12 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $13 −$10 -77%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $86 +$26 +30%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $57 +$10 +18%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $26 +$6 +24%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $9 −$8 -91%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $77 +$66 +85%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $28 −$7 -23%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 22 $105 −$43 -41%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $114 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $49 +$62 +126%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $7 −$6 -90%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $35 −$20 -57%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $49 −$16 -32%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $66 −$16 -24%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $25 +$42 +172%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $12 +$5 +39%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 29 $10 −$8 -81%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $93 −$5 -6%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $30 −$6 -19%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $23 +$10 +45%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $6 −$1 -18%
Will 115-120 million people watch Super Bowl LIX? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 135 million or more people watch Super Bowl LIX? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 9 times? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Patrick" or "Mahomes" during Super Bowl pregame Feb 10 $6 −$6 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 6¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 21¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 22¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 25¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 22¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 22¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 25¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 22¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 25¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 22¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 23¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 801 history records