Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f7b…f9ea crypto 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$64 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%141W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$377
7 days−$421
14 days−$494
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$279
sports 11% −$187
world 5% −$100
other 2% −$60
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -7.6% -16.4% 63% 47% -29.4%
≤30d 212 -3.7% -12.8% 65% 51% -9.0%
≤90d 221 -3.3% -12.5% 64% 51% -10.6%
all 221 -3.3% -12.5% 64% 51% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 51% -10.6%
10% -20.8% 36% -19.1%
15% -28.5% 25% -27.0%
20% -35.5% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses141 / 80
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)221 / 224
History coverage71d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $306 −$105 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +53%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +362%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $120 +$5 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $221 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $256 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$30 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$13 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $111 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 1h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.52 · official $6.52 (match) · 750 history records