Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f7d…686f sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$272 (-28%) realized −$271 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$47
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$307
other 15% $0
crypto 7% +$5
world 5% +$24
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -59.5% -63.3% 25% 25% -70.0%
≤90d 15 +72.1% +55.7% 67% 33% -41.1%
all 18 +60.4% +45.1% 72% 28% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.1% 28% -38.1%
10% +31.2% 22% -44.0%
15% +18.6% 22% -49.5%
20% +6.9% 17% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +137% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$91 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage170d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $88 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $75 +$47 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $121 −$120 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $96 −$95 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $78 −$77 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $67 +$76 +114%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on March 13? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 15 $13 $0 +1%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? May 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? May 15 $18 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? May 15 $2 +$23 +1329%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? May 15 $72 +$5 +8%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $82 −$81 -99%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 07 $55 +$26 +48%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Ilhan Omar be charged with fraud? Feb 04 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 04 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 07 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.62 · official $87.62 (match) · 33 history records