Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f81…2933 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-20%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-66.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -63.2% -66.7% 22% 10% -46.4%
≤30d 41 -63.2% -66.7% 22% 10% -46.4%
≤90d 41 -63.2% -66.7% 22% 10% -46.4%
all 41 -63.2% -66.7% 22% 10% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.7% 10% -46.4%
10% -69.9% 10% -51.5%
15% -72.8% 10% -56.2%
20% -75.5% 7% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records