Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f81…9a0d other 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$720 (+0%) realized +$720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1,178per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$921
politics 30% −$51
sports 21% −$169
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% −$4
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -10.4% -18.9% 5% 2% -9.6%
all 123 +2.5% -7.3% 15% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 13% -9.1%
10% -16.2% 13% -17.8%
15% -24.3% 11% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,650) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$9 · ×9.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,178
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,682 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,745 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,000 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,175 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,495 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,570 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,650 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,320 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4,203 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $4,062 −$4 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $198 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,151 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,631 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $4,555 −$6 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,657 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $988 +$694 +70%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $1,865 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? Apr 21 $352 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 21 $230 −$1 -1%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,964 −$2 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $961 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,890 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,865 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2,428 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,996 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $1,762 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $2,434 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $506 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 3m
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 55m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $429 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $430 6h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $256 28h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $256 30h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $312 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $312 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $840 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $841 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,284 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,286 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,610 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,613 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,646 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,650 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,610 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,613 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,262 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,263 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,618 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,621 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,194 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,196 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,153 16d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,155 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 417 history records