Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f83…fe7c crypto 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%145W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$30
14 days−$36
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +0.7% -8.9% 61% 61% -12.6%
≤30d 252 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 58% -13.3%
≤90d 252 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 58% -13.3%
all 252 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 58% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 58% -13.3%
10% -20.1% 58% -21.6%
15% -27.8% 56% -29.1%
20% -34.9% 44% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses145 / 107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 483 history records