Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f85…7b02
weather · 1281 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 1281
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1124.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? No 41¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+144%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? No 74¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+614%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? No 59¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11? No 73¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? No 62¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? No 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? No 19¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+426%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 86¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+246%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? No 48¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? No 24¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 5? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? No 41¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +246%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 +426%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 81% +$1
other 8% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $4 6m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $15 10m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 11m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 11m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $59 20m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $12 29m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $14 29m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 32m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $20 32m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 33m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $9 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +62.5% +47.0% 56% 56% +29.2%
≤30d 16 +62.5% +47.0% 56% 56% +29.2%
≤90d 16 +62.5% +47.0% 56% 56% +29.2%
all 16 +62.5% +47.0% 56% 56% +29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1124.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.0% 56% +29.2%
10% ← realistic here +32.9% 56% +16.8%
15% +20.1% 44% +5.5%
20% +8.3% 38% -4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.09 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records