Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f87…d5f7 politics 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%8W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$6
other 16% −$3
sports 14% −$2
culture 12% $0
economics 6% +$2
crypto 4% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 64 -5.1% -14.2% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses8 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage270d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $136 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 16? Feb 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $70 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $144 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $1 $0 -14%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $2 $0 -14%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $68 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $143 $0 -0%
US recession in 2025? Dec 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $1 $0 -17%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $70 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $3 $0 -11%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $1 $0 -9%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 01 $1 $0 -50%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 22? Nov 23 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Eminem be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $498 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $68 17d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 105d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 16? BUY No 100¢ $70 123d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 132d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 138d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 139d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 141d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 142d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 142d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 143d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $66 143d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $66 144d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 146d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 148d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 149d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $68 150d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 150d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $70 150d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $70 151d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 152d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $69 152d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $69 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.85 (match) · 262 history records