Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1F 0x1f88…8e92 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$171 (+21%) realized +$171 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip

Net edge+41%after slip

Net WR72%break-even

Win rate72%13W / 5L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$41

7 days+$258

14 days+$323

30 days+$323

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +72%

net ROI/market (all)+46.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+57.3%	+42.3%	67%	67%	+52.0%
≤30d	18	+61.9%	+46.5%	72%	72%	+54.7%
≤90d	18	+61.9%	+46.5%	72%	72%	+54.7%
all	18	+61.9%	+46.5%	72%	72%	+54.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+46.5%	72%	+54.7%
10%	+32.5%	72%	+39.9%
15%	+19.7%	72%	+26.4%
20%	+7.9%	67%	+14.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 29% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +62% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +32% → late +92% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$16 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.14 per $1 lost it wins $5.14

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$104

Realized+$171

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)72%

Wins / losses13 / 5

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions4

Markets (closed)18 / 27

History coverage8d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5	Over	44¢	44¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	50¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$4	$4	+$0 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$11	+$14	+124%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$25	+$27	+105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$30	+$33	+110%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-	Jun 17	$25	+$18	+72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$51	+$58	+114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND	Jun 14	$15	+$46	+301%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$19	−$18	-98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Jun 14	$20	−$1	-6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$25	+$27	+107%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 13	$13	−$13	-98%
Switzerland leading at halftime?	Jun 13	$30	+$17	+57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$25	−$25	-98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States	Jun 13	$45	+$57	+128%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$25	+$38	+149%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$40	−$21	-51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$30	+$35	+120%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$20	+$19	+93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$25	+$10	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$20	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A	BUY	47¢	$51	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$31	1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN	BUY	41¢	$31	47h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	44¢	$11	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$25	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Wi	BUY	53¢	$51	2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$109	2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$25	2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$25	2d
Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	47¢	$30	2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-	BUY	58¢	$25	2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	20¢	$6	5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	20¢	$13	5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Ha	BUY	27¢	$20	5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	50¢	$70	5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	SELL Scotland	38¢	$19	5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	25¢	$13	5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$52	5d
Switzerland leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	BUY Scotland	39¢	$20	5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$25	6d
Switzerland leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	63¢	$30	6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$25	6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$0	6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$63	6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$25	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.52 · official $153.52 · 49 history records