Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f8b…e3c9 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,919 (-8%) realized −$2,579 · open −$340
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 50L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$279est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,643
7 days−$1,107
14 days−$880
30 days−$2,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$2,052
other 30% −$522
crypto 5% −$582
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -11.3% -19.7% 51% 49% -8.7%
≤30d 89 -19.0% -26.7% 47% 44% -11.3%
≤90d 96 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 45% -13.0%
all 96 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 45% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 45% -13.0%
10% -32.8% 41% -21.3%
15% -39.3% 35% -28.9%
20% -45.2% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$231 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized−$2,579
Unrealized−$340
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$279
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 103
History coverage36d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 42¢ $940 $587 −$352 (-37%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $182 $195 +$13 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,714 +$647 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,905 −$1,332 -70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $773 +$104 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Austri Jun 17 $136 +$260 +192%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,508 +$305 +12%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $806 +$25 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil Jun 17 $341 +$431 +127%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $302 +$202 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,094 +$498 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$196 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $745 +$455 +61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France Jun 16 $299 −$149 -50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? A Jun 15 $305 −$179 -59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$91 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $587 −$583 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,348 −$1,340 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $292 −$288 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $198 +$151 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 −$165 -82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $64 +$26 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 +$113 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $219 +$110 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $330 +$188 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $296 −$295 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $448 +$177 +40%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $279 −$276 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $298 −$296 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 13 $721 −$714 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $134 +$147 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $698 +$334 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $378 +$87 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $446 −$79 -18%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $594 +$247 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $353 +$147 +42%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $46 +$48 +105%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $98 −$97 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $81 −$80 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $102 +$8 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $754 +$122 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $303 −$82 -27%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $185 +$101 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $744 +$71 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $88 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $949 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,714 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $68 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $537 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $378 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $98 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekis BUY 30¢ $220 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,460 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $219 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: England O/U BUY 30¢ $224 18h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $2,814 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $373 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $378 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 85¢ $406 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $392 20h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $2,508 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ $218 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ $236 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $400 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $400 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $504 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,592 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $297 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $302 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $798 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $150 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.08 · official $997.08 · 200 history records