Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1F 0x1f8d…6790 sports 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,640 (-7%) realized −$13,447 · open +$807
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate30%48W / 111L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,097per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$1,483est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$7,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$3,432
other 11% +$4,426
world 1% +$97
politics 1% −$404
economics 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$60
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.6% -1.8% 64% 43% +5.6%
≤30d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 52% 36% -5.1%
≤90d 105 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 20% -8.5%
all 159 -3.3% -12.5% 30% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 14% -9.6%
10% -20.9% 10% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -28.5% 9% -26.1%
20% -35.5% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$1,374) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$86 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$7,137
Realized−$13,447
Unrealized+$807
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses48 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$1,483
Open positions13
Markets (closed)159 / 175
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$1,097
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $1,096 $1,498 +$402 (+37%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 80¢ $1,019 $1,256 +$237 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $874 $1,084 +$210 (+24%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $884 $874 −$10 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $660 $778 +$119 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $772 $712 −$60 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $448 $324 −$124 (-28%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 59¢ 94¢ $177 $281 +$104 (+59%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $85 $157 +$72 (+85%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $126 $108 −$18 (-15%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $58 −$102 (-64%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $6 −$10 (-65%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $630 −$17 -3%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $168 −$98 -58%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $650 −$27 -4%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $544 +$157 +29%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,514 +$65 +4%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $710 +$290 +41%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $250 +$35 +14%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $536 +$264 +49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,040 +$960 +47%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $302 −$92 -30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,056 +$65 +6%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $257 +$15 +6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $431 −$117 -27%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $3,088 +$43 +1%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $804 −$177 -22%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $556 −$80 -14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $76 +$119 +156%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $594 −$206 -35%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $165 +$60 +37%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $225 −$50 -22%
Will Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Jun 05 $61 −$19 -31%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $713 +$94 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 01 $43 −$10 -24%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $1,447 −$751 -52%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $572 +$177 +31%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $1,092 +$808 +74%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $471 +$15 +3%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $336 −$325 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 17 $329 +$41 +12%
Canucks vs. Sharks Apr 12 $1,650 −$50 -3%
Flames vs. Kraken Apr 12 $1,680 −$534 -32%
Flyers vs. Jets Apr 11 $748 −$468 -63%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Apr 11 $679 −$247 -36%
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 11 $765 +$15 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 11 $1,865 +$60 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 11 $436 −$150 -34%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 11 $932 −$462 -50%
Wild vs. Predators Apr 11 $2,510 +$40 +2%
Mexico City: James Duckworth vs Tibo Colson Apr 11 $262 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 11 $1,575 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 11 $1,020 +$40 +4%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 11 $1,060 $0 -0%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Stefano Napolitano Apr 11 $27 $0 -2%
Predators vs. Utah Apr 10 $720 +$480 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 10 $320 +$10 +3%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 10 $599 −$389 -65%
Jets vs. Blues Apr 10 $550 −$440 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $613 31m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $70 33m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $354 33m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $269 34m
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $701 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,580 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $630 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $169 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $96 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $56 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $223 11h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $94 14h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,137.28 · official $7,137.63 (match) · 3500 history records