Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f8e…46fe tech 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$107 (-13%) realized −$105 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$177
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$99
other 27% −$2
tech 8% −$11
world 2% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -28.2%
≤90d 10 -12.8% -21.1% 80% 10% -25.5%
all 14 -16.3% -24.2% 79% 7% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 7% -25.7%
10% -31.5% 7% -32.8%
15% -38.1% 7% -39.3%
20% -44.2% 7% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$88 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage168d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $191 $189 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $179 −$177 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $76 −$75 -98%
Senators vs. Hurricanes May 19 $226 +$153 +67%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$250 on the final day of trading of the we Jan 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Jan 07 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.24 · official $189.28 (match) · 26 history records