Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f96…e654 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$125 (-13%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$51
sports 18% −$87
world 18% −$3
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -51.6% -56.2% 6% 6% -23.6%
≤30d 18 -51.6% -56.2% 6% 6% -23.6%
≤90d 18 -51.6% -56.2% 6% 6% -23.6%
all 18 -51.6% -56.2% 6% 6% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.2% 6% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -60.4% 6% -30.9%
15% -64.2% 6% -37.6%
20% -67.7% 6% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -87% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $100 −$2 -2%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? Jun 28 $160 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $270 −$9 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 28 $170 −$3 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $10 −$7 -65%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $10 −$7 -64%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $100 −$45 -45%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $10 −$4 -41%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-5.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 84¢ $98 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 85¢ $100 1h
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 1h
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $160 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $163 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $169 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $167 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $170 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $98 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 5h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 17¢ $4 7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $4 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 52¢ $55 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 93¢ $100 7h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 18h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 18h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 46¢ $10 18h
Spread: England (-5.5) BUY England $10 18h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 26¢ $10 18h
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY England 14¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 18h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records