Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f9e…4f1a politics 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$150,369 (+114%) realized +$144,377 · open +$5,992
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +144% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip
Net edge+81%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%56W / 41L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$533per market
Trades / day152.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$80,623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% +$23,879
other 20% +$1,272
world 4% +$618
sports 1% −$939
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+121.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +65.0% +49.3% 51% 34% +4.7%
≤30d 97 +144.5% +121.2% 58% 44% +13.0%
≤90d 97 +144.5% +121.2% 58% 44% +13.0%
all 97 +144.5% +121.2% 58% 44% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +121.2% 44% +13.0%
10% +100.1% 31% +2.2%
15% ← realistic here +80.7% 26% -7.7%
20% +63.0% 24% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +145% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +259% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$364 vs −$42 · ×8.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.18 per $1 lost it wins $12.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$80,623
Realized+$144,377
Unrealized+$5,992
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses56 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions342
Markets (closed)97 / 247
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$533
Trades / day152.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 342 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5,578 $5,813 +$235 (+4%)
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 91¢ 98¢ $5,286 $5,672 +$386 (+7%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 91¢ 99¢ $2,823 $3,079 +$256 (+9%)
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $2,535 $2,665 +$130 (+5%)
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $2,043 $2,200 +$156 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? Yes 39¢ 72¢ $1,155 $2,130 +$975 (+84%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,063 $2,043 −$20 (-1%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 51¢ 55¢ $1,876 $2,005 +$128 (+7%)
Will Kelly Ayotte win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Republican primary election? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $1,790 $1,994 +$204 (+11%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $1,922 $1,986 +$64 (+3%)
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $1,529 $1,717 +$187 (+12%)
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No 78¢ 88¢ $1,202 $1,345 +$143 (+12%)
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 89¢ 99¢ $1,092 $1,217 +$125 (+11%)
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election? Yes 42¢ 57¢ $862 $1,168 +$305 (+35%)
Will Michael Minogue win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $939 $1,139 +$200 (+21%)
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 63¢ 72¢ $935 $1,077 +$143 (+15%)
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 51¢ 90¢ $593 $1,048 +$455 (+77%)
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 82¢ 89¢ $925 $998 +$74 (+8%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $619 $899 +$279 (+45%)
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 27¢ 40¢ $606 $896 +$290 (+48%)
Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $740 $783 +$43 (+6%)
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 74¢ 85¢ $642 $733 +$91 (+14%)
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $538 $728 +$190 (+35%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $705 $701 −$5 (-1%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $590 $675 +$85 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Williams be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 25 $48 −$98 -205%
Will Yan Xiong be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $5,481 +$162 +3%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 24 $478 +$46 +10%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 24 $5,716 +$365 +6%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $2,014 +$675 +34%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 24 $329 −$130 -39%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $11 +$6 +59%
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 23 $121 −$15 -12%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 23 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 23 $1,338 +$36 +3%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $187 −$68 -36%
Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary ele Jun 23 $3 −$19 -604%
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 23 $24 −$22 -93%
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $81 −$80 -100%
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $48 −$144 -303%
Will Wala Blegay be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $1 −$10 -938%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 23 $4,773 +$588 +12%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more Jun 23 $1,586 +$101 +6%
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 23 $233 +$124 +53%
Will Fred M'membe win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 23 $210 +$110 +52%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $687 +$42 +6%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 23 $146 +$88 +61%
Will Julie Won be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will voter turnout be 52-56% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 22 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 22 $5 −$69 -1381%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 22 $164 −$16 -10%
Will George Conway be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 22 $8 −$13 -150%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 22 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 21 $37 +$72 +196%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an Jun 21 $51 −$18 -36%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an Jun 21 $247 −$16 -6%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 21 $679 +$39 +6%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 21 $169 +$33 +20%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 21 $321 +$79 +25%
Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 21 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Cristiano Sicari win the 2026 Chieti mayoral election? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election? Jun 21 $74 +$981 +1326%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election? Jun 21 $59 +$72 +122%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Will David Jones win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi Jun 21 $2 −$2 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential SELL Yes 52¢ $10 8m
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr SELL Yes 73¢ $31 9m
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? SELL Yes 93¢ $39 9m
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential SELL Yes 52¢ $10 14m
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr SELL Yes 73¢ $15 19m
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? SELL Yes 93¢ $19 19m
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? SELL Yes 93¢ $65 1h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential SELL Yes 52¢ $11 1h
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m SELL Yes 7¢ $91 1h
Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States mi SELL No 94¢ $802 1h
Will Ashley Kalus win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primar SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 58¢ $34 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 1h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential SELL Yes 52¢ $26 1h
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 58¢ $40 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? SELL Yes 93¢ $189 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? BUY No 7¢ $0 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? BUY No 7¢ $3 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? BUY No 7¢ $21 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? BUY No 7¢ $6 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? BUY No 7¢ $0 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? BUY Yes 91¢ $234 1h
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr SELL Yes 73¢ $15 1h
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,990 1h
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr SELL Yes 73¢ $15 2h
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY No 25¢ $6 2h
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY No 25¢ $20 2h
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY No 25¢ $1 2h
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY Yes 65¢ $15 2h
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY Yes 63¢ $1,069 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80,623.32 · official $80,623.17 (match) · 3500 history records