Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f9f…2cb8 sports 290 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,308 (+10%) realized +$10,297 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%136W / 153L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2,053est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$914
7 days+$2,315
14 days+$1,769
30 days+$3,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$8,178
other 4% +$633
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +41.7% +28.2% 67% 67% +34.1%
≤30d 76 +17.6% +6.4% 58% 57% +9.5%
≤90d 289 +9.2% -1.2% 47% 46% +0.8%
all 289 +9.2% -1.2% 47% 46% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 46% +0.8%
10% -10.6% 45% -8.9%
15% -19.3% 44% -17.7%
20% -27.2% 41% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$346 vs −$250 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$10,297
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses136 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2,053
Open positions1
Markets (closed)289 / 290
History coverage73d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $214 −$211 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $106 −$104 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $780 +$547 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $373 +$408 +109%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $227 +$147 +65%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $99 +$128 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $608 +$483 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $269 +$408 +152%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $150 +$119 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $188 +$311 +165%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $99 +$89 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $140 −$138 -98%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $82 +$58 +71%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $44 +$38 +86%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $55 −$11 -20%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $251 −$247 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $138 −$135 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $467 −$78 -17%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $251 +$216 +86%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $100 +$152 +152%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 11 $173 +$137 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $96 +$77 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $264 −$260 -98%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $153 +$112 +73%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $100 +$53 +53%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $595 −$595 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $296 +$299 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $336 −$217 -65%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $102 +$116 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $112 −$110 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $92 −$10 -11%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 +$42 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $136 +$221 +162%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $275 −$272 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 01 $227 −$223 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $145 +$83 +57%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $195 −$192 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $34 −$34 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $48 −$47 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $331 −$327 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $155 +$177 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $168 −$13 -8%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $96 +$70 +73%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $407 −$400 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $102 +$108 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,323 −$172 -13%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $876 +$567 +65%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 28 $375 +$502 +134%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $733 +$657 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $426 +$352 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 58¢ $214 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 35¢ $106 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $1,326 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $780 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $373 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 60¢ $227 29h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 43¢ $99 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 35h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $608 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $269 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $150 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $188 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $99 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $140 5d
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 58¢ $82 5d
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee SELL Harmony Tan 100¢ $82 5d
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Harmony Tan 53¢ $44 5d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Keegan Smith 30¢ $44 5d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 36¢ $55 5d
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li BUY Mei Yamaguchi 50¢ $251 6d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 18¢ $138 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 50¢ $389 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 58¢ $467 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 53¢ $251 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $252 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 39¢ $100 6d
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Yujia Huang 55¢ $173 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $96 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $264 7d
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 57¢ $153 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.57 · official $60.57 (match) · 583 history records