Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1f9f…e21c crypto 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,061 (-8%) realized −$1,060 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%124W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$298
14 days−$285
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$566
sports 25% −$289
other 9% −$262
world 4% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -18.1% -25.9% 56% 48% -22.8%
≤30d 28 -14.4% -22.6% 57% 50% -22.1%
≤90d 240 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 46% -18.1%
all 240 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 46% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 46% -18.1%
10% -27.1% 40% -25.9%
15% -34.1% 30% -33.1%
20% -40.6% 21% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$34 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$1,060
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses124 / 116
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage40d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 +$32 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $157 +$25 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $162 +$80 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $177 +$110 +62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $530 −$81 -15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $376 −$183 -49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $39 −$39 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $25 +$7 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $21 +$16 +73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -91%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$12 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $19 +$7 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$28 -92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$4 +40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 +$3 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 18 $6 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 18 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 18 $105 −$80 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 18 $248 −$32 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 18 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 18 $135 +$41 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 18 $104 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 18 $223 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 18 $227 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 18 $134 −$100 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 18 $83 +$67 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $76 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 18 $228 +$49 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 18 $256 −$200 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 18 $106 −$26 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 18 $115 −$112 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 18 $106 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $89 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $62 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $157 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $162 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $177 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 73¢ $165 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $225 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $263 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $107 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $105 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $85 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $88 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $290 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $98 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $39 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $11 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $25 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $37 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $21 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 7¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $18 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $35 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.42 · official $87.42 (match) · 516 history records