Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1F 0x1fa0…491f crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+20%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.8% -0.7% 64% 64% -4.6%
≤30d 11 +9.8% -0.7% 64% 64% -4.6%
≤90d 11 +9.8% -0.7% 64% 64% -4.6%
all 15 +14.7% +3.8% 60% 60% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 60% -3.6%
10% -6.1% 53% -12.8%
15% -15.2% 47% -21.2%
20% -23.5% 33% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage110d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 26 $1 +$2 +219%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 26 $1 +$1 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records