Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fa0…0465 crypto 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$371 (+1%) realized +$371 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate89%59W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$10
14 days+$19
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$142
other 14% +$101
economics 9% +$92
world 6% +$13
politics 6% +$4
finance 4% +$11
tech 1% +$1
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 14 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 66 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 6% -8.5%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$988) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.74 per $1 lost it wins $13.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$1,138
Realized+$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses59 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage267d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $956 $956 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $182 $182 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1,236 +$7 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 24 $498 +$3 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $328 +$6 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $191 +$4 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $318 +$11 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $598 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $598 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 16 $198 +$3 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $915 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 26 $752 +$5 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 25 $155 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $1,101 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 03 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $1,097 +$3 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $91 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $867 +$5 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Mar 18 $132 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 4? Mar 18 $6 −$4 -75%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? Mar 17 $790 +$77 +10%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 16 $89 +$2 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? Mar 12 $121 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $19 +$2 +12%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 02 $91 +$5 +6%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 23 $253 +$4 +2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $259 −$6 -2%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 08 $357 −$7 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $204 +$54 +26%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $80 +$19 +23%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $999 +$4 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 30 $1,235 +$29 +2%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 20 $200 −$11 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $197 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $1,012 +$46 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $197 +$7 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $783 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 20 $988 +$24 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $1,183 +$1 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Nov 05 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Nov 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Nov 05 $86 +$4 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Nov 05 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Nov 05 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Nov 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $459 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $1,028 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 30? Oct 31 $127 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Oct 30 $1,022 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $182 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $958 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $335 24h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $500 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $334 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $105 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $229 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $498 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $194 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $303 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $301 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $128 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $107 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $328 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $328 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $601 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $599 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $598 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $599 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $191 40d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $201 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $598 57d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $193 57d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $125 57d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $915 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,137.55 · official $1,137.55 (match) · 248 history records