Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fa1…e73a other 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$72
14 days−$66
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$4
world 28% −$112
other 15% +$13
economics 14% $0
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 16 -7.3% -16.2% 19% 0% -13.1%
≤90d 26 +67.3% +51.3% 15% 4% -10.9%
all 84 +21.2% +9.6% 38% 2% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 2% -10.8%
10% -0.9% 2% -19.4%
15% -10.4% 1% -27.2%
20% -19.2% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 52
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage452d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $111 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $112 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $130 +$6 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $166 −$5 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $126 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $218 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $109 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $3 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $121 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $178 −$11 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $341 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $111 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $257 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $137 −$4 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $11 −$2 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $127 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $146 −$21 -14%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,167 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,166 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $1,166 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,170 −$4 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $185 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $45 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $30 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $42 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $71 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $111 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $55 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $56 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $74 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $13 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $58 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $83 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $120 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $120 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $34 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $104 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.85 · official $44.66 (match) · 298 history records