Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fa1…1fa9 world 145 markets active 11d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$255,113 (+159%) realized +$255,206 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%51W / 93L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,104per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$363est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$298
30 days−$17,621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$259,909
other 8% −$1,672
sports 7% −$1,904
crypto 3% −$1,340
politics 0% −$88
tech 0% −$430
economics 0% +$747
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 57 -73.9% -76.3% 14% 9% -46.0%
≤90d 132 -2.6% -11.8% 34% 23% +129.0%
all 144 +11.3% +0.7% 35% 25% +147.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 25% +147.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 22% +123.5%
15% -17.7% 18% +101.9%
20% -25.8% 16% +82.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +151% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +171% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$643) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +81% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,067 vs −$582 · ×10.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.72 per $1 lost it wins $5.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$255,206
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses51 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,104
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $300 $207 −$93 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,907 +$160 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $166 −$158 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $210 −$200 -95%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $137 −$134 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $112 +$26 +23%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $130 −$129 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,303 −$54 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $433 −$430 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $10,208 −$2,614 -26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $290 −$82 -28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$18 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $515 −$306 -59%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 +15%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? Jun 07 $79 −$79 -100%
AJ Auxerre vs. Angers SCO: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $80 −$80 -100%
1H Spread: Celtics (-2.5) Jun 07 $224 −$224 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 07 $240 −$240 -100%
Paris FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $152 −$152 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $250 −$250 -100%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $90 −$90 -100%
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $377 −$377 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 5? Jun 07 $70 −$70 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 07 $775 −$265 -34%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $204 −$204 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 07 $434 −$434 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 07 $181 −$181 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 07 $789 +$560 +71%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 07 $1,296 −$1,296 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 07 $13,379 −$5,254 -39%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 07 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 07 $205 −$205 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 07 $638 −$638 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 07 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 07 $230 −$230 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 07 $584 −$584 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 07 $1,669 −$575 -34%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 07 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 07 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 07 $565 −$565 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 07 $1,350 −$135 -10%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 07 $1,876 +$81 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,795 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $371 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $125 12d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $137 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $138 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $112 14d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $134 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $389 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $52 16d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.66 · official $206.66 (match) · 2441 history records