Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1fa3…7e2e crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,284 (-11%) realized −$2,087 · open −$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%87W / 105L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$222
14 days−$222
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$2,744
crypto 40% +$193
other 5% −$25
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -30.5% -37.1% 40% 40% -26.7%
≤30d 10 -30.5% -37.1% 40% 40% -26.7%
≤90d 142 -41.9% -47.4% 34% 31% -50.4%
all 192 -13.4% -21.6% 45% 42% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 42% -21.7%
10% -29.1% 36% -29.2%
15% -36.0% 29% -36.1%
20% -42.3% 22% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +34% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$80 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,087
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses87 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 194
History coverage135d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $149 +$55 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$17 -96%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants Jun 28 $94 −$76 -81%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $236 −$234 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $315 −$79 -25%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 27 $192 +$123 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$10 +76%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers May 23 $108 −$107 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Kristijan Juhas vs Martin Van Der Meerschen May 23 $69 +$40 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 24 $21 −$20 -95%
Gwangju: Liam Broady vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 23 $31 −$31 -99%
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic Apr 22 $201 −$199 -99%
Madrid Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva Apr 22 $294 +$91 +31%
Shymkent: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Apr 22 $67 +$44 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 17 $43 −$42 -96%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Apr 17 $34 +$10 +29%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 17 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 17 $17 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 17 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 16? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Busan: August Holmgren vs Liam Broady Apr 17 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 17 $23 +$29 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 17 $14 +$10 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 17 $57 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Wuning 2: San-Hui Shin vs Maximus Jones Apr 16 $37 −$36 -96%
Busan: August Holmgren vs Alexis Galarneau Apr 16 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 16 $31 +$23 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 16 $29 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 15 $75 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 15 $50 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Apr 14 $50 −$26 -51%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 14 $8 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 14 $57 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclones Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $149 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $150 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $18 23h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants SELL LG Twins 13¢ $18 23h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 63¢ $94 24h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 72¢ $236 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 44¢ $42 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 45¢ $126 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 44¢ $67 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 58¢ $315 45h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 99¢ $315 45h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 60¢ $192 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. S BUY 23¢ $138 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers BUY SSG Landers 61¢ $108 37d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Kristijan Juhas vs Martin Van Der Meerschen SELL Martin Van Der Meerschen 87¢ $108 37d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Kristijan Juhas vs Martin Van Der Meerschen BUY Martin Van Der Meerschen 54¢ $69 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 66d
Gwangju: Liam Broady vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Liam Broady 57¢ $31 67d
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic BUY Zizou Bergs 76¢ $201 67d
Madrid Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 95¢ $201 67d
Madrid Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 86¢ $183 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 472 history records