Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1F 0x1fa5…4702 other 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$5,492 (-17%) realized −$5,492 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%3W / 19L

Whale WR33%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,458per market

Trades / day10.6pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-50.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-45.2%	-50.4%	14%	14%	-26.4%
≤30d	22	-45.2%	-50.4%	14%	14%	-26.4%
≤90d	22	-45.2%	-50.4%	14%	14%	-26.4%
all	22	-45.2%	-50.4%	14%	14%	-26.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.6 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-50.4%	14%	-26.4%
10% ← realistic here	-55.2%	14%	-33.5%
15%	-59.5%	14%	-39.9%
20%	-63.5%	9%	-45.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 33% (≥$2,027) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -36% → late -55% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,656 vs −$575 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$5,492

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses3 / 19

Whale WR (big bets)33%

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$1,458

Trades / day10.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 17	$3	−$2	-72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 16	$233	−$233	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 16	$209	−$200	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 16	$102	+$46	+45%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand?	Jun 16	$506	−$500	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$2,027	−$127	-6%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia?	Jun 15	$202	−$201	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$404	−$258	-64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$308	−$112	-37%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$192	−$3	-2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,778	−$28	-2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$10	−$1	-9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2,010	−$47	-2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3,994	+$3,430	+86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$995	−$974	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$4,190	−$2,560	-61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2,697	+$1,493	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 13	$106	−$100	-94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$4,196	−$2,592	-62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$4,928	−$56	-1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$2,069	−$2,024	-98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$921	−$900	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	SELL Down	5¢	$1	40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$3	40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$25	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$208	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$209	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$148	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$102	2d
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand?	BUY Yes	60¢	$506	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	53¢	$1,900	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$2,027	2d
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	24¢	$147	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$404	2d
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	73¢	$202	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	3d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	89¢	$189	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	91¢	$1,749	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$1,778	3d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	90¢	$192	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$9	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	15¢	$183	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$205	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	61¢	$1,964	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$999	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$1,012	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7,424	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	53¢	$3,994	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$995	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	23¢	$1,631	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,152	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records