Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fa8…36a2 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,042 (-7%) realized −$1,512 · open +$470
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate82%64W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days−$450
14 days−$882
30 days−$882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$673
other 30% −$391
weather 18% −$256
sports 7% −$420
politics 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -7.8% -16.6% 90% 1% -13.5%
≤30d 77 -12.5% -20.8% 83% 4% -16.6%
≤90d 78 -12.6% -20.9% 82% 4% -16.6%
all 78 -12.6% -20.9% 82% 4% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 4% -16.6%
10% -28.5% 1% -24.6%
15% -35.4% 1% -31.8%
20% -41.7% 1% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$96 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$4,362
Realized−$1,512
Unrealized+$470
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses64 / 14
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions11
Markets (closed)78 / 89
History coverage44d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 27¢ 38¢ $988 $1,376 +$388 (+39%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 46¢ 57¢ $1,080 $1,350 +$270 (+25%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 96¢ 96¢ $500 $502 +$2 (+0%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 92¢ 68¢ $678 $502 −$177 (-26%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $281 −$19 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? No 96¢ 100¢ $93 $97 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $92 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $41 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? No 97¢ 99¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $191 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $216 +$6 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,607 +$186 +5%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 15 $92 +$2 +2%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 15 $91 +$2 +2%
Mikel Merino: 2+ goals Jun 15 $149 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 15 $19 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 15 $113 +$2 +2%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 15 $90 +$2 +2%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 15 $70 +$1 +2%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 15 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $144 +$3 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $67 +$3 +4%
Gabriel Gudmundsson: 1+ assists Jun 15 $138 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $132 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $231 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $41 +$2 +4%
Khalil Ayari: 1+ goals Jun 15 $117 +$5 +4%
Moisés Caicedo: 1+ assists Jun 15 $38 +$2 +5%
Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals Jun 15 $124 +$15 +12%
Virgil van Dijk: 1+ assists Jun 15 $186 +$8 +4%
Yasin Ayari: 1+ goals Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $240 +$5 +2%
Virgil van Dijk: 2+ assists Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ goals Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Kō Itakura: 2+ assists Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
Junya Itō: 2+ goals Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $187 +$8 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $406 +$10 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $217 +$13 +6%
David Raum: 2+ goals Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Angelo Stiller: 2+ goals Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $118 +$5 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Ryan Gravenberch: 2+ assists Jun 14 $25 −$24 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 33¢ $200 52m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $25 56m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $28 56m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $197 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $222 56m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $580 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 30¢ $288 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $312 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 24¢ $500 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $500 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 95¢ $200 1h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $300 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 97¢ $300 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $27 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $34 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $41 11h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $93 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $62 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $92 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $216 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $191 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $23 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3,793 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $180 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $150 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $190 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,362.40 · official $4,480.30 · 180 history records