Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

1F 0x1fa8…536b other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$206 (-3%) realized −$393 · open +$187

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR11%break-even

Win rate11%1W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$435per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$5,928now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$242

14 days−$266

30 days−$466

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +11%

net ROI/market (all)-64.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-36.3%	-42.3%	25%	25%	-68.3%
≤30d	7	-48.8%	-53.7%	14%	14%	-78.9%
≤90d	8	-55.2%	-59.5%	12%	12%	-79.1%
all	9	-60.2%	-64.0%	11%	11%	-79.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-64.0%	11%	-79.2%
10%	-67.4%	11%	-81.2%
15%	-70.6%	11%	-83.0%
20%	-73.5%	11%	-84.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -60% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$79 vs −$69 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.14 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage

Net worth$5,928

Realized−$393

Unrealized+$187

Win rate (resolved)11%

Wins / losses1 / 8

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions6

Markets (closed)9 / 15

History coverage98d

Avg bet$435

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$1,960	$2,037	+$77 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$1,100	$1,099	−$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$800	$932	+$132 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$782	$775	−$7 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$600	$595	−$5 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$500	$489	−$11 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$72	−$70	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	+$79	+155%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14	Jun 14	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$203	−$200	-99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$25	−$24	-96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	$0	-1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$205	−$200	-98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	Apr 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Mar 15	$5	−$5	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$804	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$411	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$514	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$617	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1,026	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	29¢	$31	4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	63¢	$130	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	26¢	$41	4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14	SELL	0¢	$0	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14	BUY	2¢	$51	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	23¢	$25	7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	27¢	$10	7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$411	8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	17¢	$205	20d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2,017	22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	97d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,928.37 · official $5,929.06 (match) · 45 history records