Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1fab…232f other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (178 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26,424 (+25%) realized +$24,626 · open +$1,798
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,931per market
Trades / day177.8pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$15,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$33,235
crypto 6% −$6,410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (178 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 15% +15.5%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 15% +15.5%
≤90d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 15% +15.5%
all 13 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 15% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover177.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 15% +15.5%
10% -18.4% 15% +4.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 15% -5.7%
20% -33.5% 15% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
62.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10,278 vs −$5,234 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$15,118
Realized+$24,626
Unrealized+$1,798
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6,931
Trades / day177.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 75¢ $11,120 $15,028 +$3,908 (+35%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 11¢ 0¢ $2,200 $90 −$2,110 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15,817 +$24,487 +155%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $69 +$4 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,880 +$36,120 +525%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9,770 +$230 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,162 −$3,150 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10,406 −$10,339 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,815 +$185 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $16,571 +$641 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,950 −$4,950 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $307 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $669 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $12 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $510 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $6 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $25 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $4 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $124 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $12 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $4 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,118.15 · official $15,120.15 (match) · 951 history records