Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1fac…1fee sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40,914 (+20%) realized +$40,289 · open +$625
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%53W / 40L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$2,073per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1,444est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3,452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,034
7 days+$3,018
14 days+$4,198
30 days+$38,897
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$28,647
other 35% +$7,639
crypto 1% +$2,576
world 1% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 52% +12.7%
≤30d 37 +20.5% +9.0% 59% 59% +26.9%
≤90d 93 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 46% +7.8%
all 93 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 46% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 46% +7.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 44% -2.5%
15% -29.4% 40% -11.9%
20% -36.3% 28% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$939) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,779 vs −$1,408 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$3,452
Realized+$40,289
Unrealized+$625
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses53 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,444
Open positions4
Markets (closed)93 / 97
History coverage66d
Avg bet$2,073
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2,182 $2,174 −$7 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $348 $1,117 +$769 (+221%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $159 $160 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 53¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $220 +$348 +158%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,363 +$775 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $364 +$339 +93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,378 +$1,847 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $565 −$556 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $766 −$225 -29%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 20 $22 −$14 -64%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 20 $83 −$66 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $666 −$655 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $423 +$241 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $320 +$103 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $130 +$190 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 +$81 +165%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $103 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $3,511 +$2,671 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $213 −$210 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $94 +$115 +123%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,787 −$1,764 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $104 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $82 +$115 +139%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $115 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $360 −$360 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $502 +$860 +171%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,322 +$1,095 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9,659 +$2,732 +28%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,368 +$5,295 +121%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9,005 −$9,005 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6,636 +$2,372 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,614 −$1,592 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$31 +63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$23 +89%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $1,042 −$276 -26%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $284 −$276 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $84 +$56 +67%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,333 +$2,576 +110%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $46,143 +$32,343 +70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 08 $23,561 −$23,561 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $321 −$321 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $40,626 +$31,777 +78%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) Apr 28 $939 −$939 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 28 $678 −$678 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Play Apr 23 $738 +$201 +27%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $541 +$197 +36%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $549 −$549 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $800 −$800 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $160 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $568 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $140 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,138 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $701 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $703 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $660 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $362 5h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $220 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $1,373 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $2 38h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $563 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $541 38h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 13¢ $8 38h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 15¢ $16 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $663 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $423 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $424 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $320 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $130 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $130 3d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $103 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $6,182 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $3,502 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,451.77 · official $3,451.77 (match) · 376 history records