Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1faf…ed09 weather 379 markets active 1d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$198 (-6%) realized −$201 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate80%278W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$62
finance 7% −$134
crypto 6% −$9
other 1% $0
world 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 5% -8.0%
≤30d 124 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 348 -3.0% -12.2% 80% 29% -16.0%
all 348 -3.0% -12.2% 80% 29% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 29% -16.0%
10% -20.6% 18% -24.1%
15% -28.3% 8% -31.4%
20% -35.3% 4% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses278 / 70
Open positions31
Markets (closed)348 / 379
History coverage66d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $8 −$4 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $1 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $3 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.29 · official $222.29 (match) · 1184 history records