Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1fb1…9a6b crypto 331 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$752 (+1%) realized +$752 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate58%191W / 139L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$832est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$869
crypto 16% −$483
other 6% −$1,113
world 2% −$308
finance 1% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.7% -57.2% 0% 0% -55.6%
≤30d 16 -24.5% -31.7% 38% 31% -21.1%
≤90d 162 -7.9% -16.6% 43% 40% -7.6%
all 330 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 31% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 31% -8.6%
10% -25.2% 21% -17.3%
15% -32.5% 16% -25.3%
20% -39.1% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$96 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses191 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$832
Open positions0
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage113d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 330 Trades
no open positions (87 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $162 −$9 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $277 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $123 +$154 +124%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $220 −$97 -44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $488 −$480 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $618 −$610 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 30 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 30 $22 +$20 +91%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $102 −$78 -77%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $1,273 +$461 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 28 $27 +$12 +43%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $334 +$27 +8%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $790 +$284 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 25 $241 −$177 -73%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $94 +$79 +84%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $112 −$109 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $338 −$333 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $355 −$334 -94%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $3,815 −$670 -18%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $2,028 −$755 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 12 $58 +$39 +67%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $1,367 +$326 +24%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $1,514 +$423 +28%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $204 −$100 -49%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $408 +$489 +120%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $410 +$401 +98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $579 −$393 -68%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $102 −$17 -17%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$137 +134%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $1,910 −$464 -24%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $102 +$131 +129%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $507 +$453 +89%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $3,358 +$571 +17%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $2,124 +$352 +17%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $173 −$170 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $2,228 +$1,804 +81%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $769 −$50 -6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $511 −$438 -86%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 03 $611 +$223 +36%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $152 +$106 +70%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 02 $1,059 −$90 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $153 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $153 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $162 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 40¢ $263 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $265 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $277 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $277 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $123 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $123 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $220 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 42¢ $488 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $62 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 52¢ $618 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $44 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 25d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Chicago Cubs 11¢ $23 25d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $102 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 94¢ $960 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 37¢ $386 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 63¢ $386 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 62¢ $389 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 38¢ $388 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $499 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $39 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $17 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1045 history records