Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fb6…a642 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate78%40W / 11L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$195
14 days+$195
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$207
other 4% +$3
politics 2% −$1
sports 2% −$7
tech 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 57% +6.5%
≤30d 51 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 57% +6.5%
≤90d 51 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 57% +6.5%
all 51 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 57% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 57% +6.5%
10% -11.6% 45% -3.7%
15% -20.2% 35% -13.0%
20% -28.0% 18% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses40 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage198d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Taylor Swift say "Christmas" on The Late Show on December 10? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" in February? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on Decembe Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FI Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 21 $2 +$3 +127%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World Jun 20 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in February? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.66 · official $3.66 (match) · 130 history records