Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fb6…56d3 crypto 433 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,175 (+4%) realized +$1,175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%267W / 166L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$275
14 days−$16
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$932
sports 6% −$221
other 3% +$535
tech 1% −$42
culture 1% −$228
politics 1% −$1
world 0% −$90
economics 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.5% -22.7% 62% 58% -19.7%
≤30d 91 -3.6% -12.8% 73% 65% -8.7%
≤90d 165 +2.8% -7.0% 68% 59% -2.8%
all 433 +0.0% -9.5% 62% 54% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 54% -6.4%
10% -18.1% 39% -15.3%
15% -26.1% 23% -23.5%
20% -33.3% 16% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$37 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses267 / 166
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 433
History coverage245d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$17 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $127 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$23 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $57 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1165 history records