Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1fb7…9bf1 sports 138 markets active 10h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%68W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$10
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2
other 14% +$3
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +4.8% -5.2% 56% 56% -4.5%
≤30d 129 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 53% -7.1%
≤90d 129 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 53% -7.1%
all 129 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 53% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 53% -7.1%
10% -15.9% 51% -16.0%
15% -24.0% 47% -24.1%
20% -31.5% 41% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses68 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)129 / 138
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 55¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1 $0 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $1 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $1 9h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $1 9h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $1 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 33h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 33h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $1 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $1 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $1 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $1 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $1 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $1 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $1 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $1 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $1 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.64 · official $9.64 (match) · 210 history records